17-04-201917-04-2019 15:19:05 IST
2019-04-17T09:49:05.283Z17-04-2019 2019-04-17T09:49:02.875Z - - 10-04-2020
Which way Godavari's votes flow?
What is Uttar Pradesh for India, the same would be West and East Godavari districts for Andhra Pradesh. Any party or alliance without enough number of seats in UP, which has 81 out 543 loksabha, cannot record win at Centre. Similarly, West and East Godavari districts hold 34 seats out of 175 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh.
Hence, without winning majority seats in these two districts combined, the chances for any party to get power would be slim.
This time the popular word is that majority of Kapu voters who voted for TDP in 2014, voted for YCP this time. In the last elections YCP won just 5 seats in these two districts that too in East Godavari district only. West Godavari district was made clean sweep by TDP-BJP combine. Analysts say that this was made possible due to three factors; TDP strength, Modi wave and Pavan's support.
This time Pavan's Janasena is fighting alone and that could split Kapu vote among TDP, YCP and Janasena. According to an estimate, Janasena has around 20,000 vote bank in each constituency of these districts. All these votes were polled to TDP in 2014, but that was not the situation on April 11, 2019.
There has been a talk that at the end of the campaign, voters suspected internal understanding between TDP and Janasena and those voters were divided between Janasena and YCP. Where Janasena was strong, they voted for it, and in the other case, they favoured YCP.
According to analysts this could result in more seats for YCP. As per estimates YCP would increse its tally from 5 to 14, an increase of 9 seats and that remaining seats could be shared between TDP and Janasena.
This could spell doom for the hopes of power for the TDP in the state.
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